STORM FORECAST
VALID Mon 17 Apr 06:00 - Tue 18 Apr 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 16 Apr 22:11 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC.. main features are a cold core mid/upper low over western Iberia and one over the southern Norwegian Sea. Rather steep lapse rates in the range of the low over Ibearia should allow for widespread convection to form over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As the system shifts eastward, the activity should spread over the western Mediterranean during the afternoon and evening.

Within a wide zone stretching from northern Italy to Belarus, strong insolation should allow for the formation of marginal amounts of latent instability... despite 800-600 hpa lapse rates of only 6-7 K/km and the presence of limited low-level moisture. the same is valid for a zone stretching fRomania into the eastern Balkan. Isolated to scatterred storms are expected to form in these areas as a result.

DISCUSSION

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